Austin Housing Market Update: Are Home Prices Going Up or Down?

If you’ve been following the news lately, you might feel a little confused. Zillow says Austin home prices are down nearly 6% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the Austin American-Statesman reports prices are climbing. So which is it?

I’m Jeremy Knight, your favorite Austin realtor, and today we’re breaking down the July housing numbers straight from the Austin Board of Realtors (ABoR) the most reliable source since Texas is a non-disclosure state. Let’s clear up the confusion and talk about what’s really happening in Austin real estate.

Why Zillow and Local Numbers Don’t Match

Texas is a non-disclosure state. That means companies like Zillow and Redfin don’t have access to the true final sales prices. Instead, they estimate based on limited data. The Austin Board of Realtors (ABoR), however, pulls directly from the MLS.

• Zillow: Reports Austin home values down 5.7% year-over-year.
  
  
• Austin Board of Realtors: Shows the Austin metro area down just 3.3% with a median of $535,000.
  
  

Austin Is Officially in a Buyer’s Market

Inventory levels tell the real story. In July, Austin reached 6.1 months of inventory. Traditionally, six months signals a balanced market but in Austin, even 4.5–5 months starts tipping power toward buyers.

• 15,000+ active listings (one of the highest totals in years)
  
  
• Pending sales up 15% (buyers are re-entering as rates dip slightly)
  
  
• Closed sales down (partly due to 15% of homes falling out of contract)
  
  
• Average close-to-list price ratio: 93%
  
  

👉 Translation: Buyers have leverage, and sellers must price strategically to avoid sitting on the market.

County-by-County Breakdown

The five-county metro (Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop, Caldwell) shows different stories depending on where you look:

• City of Austin: Median price up 2.2% year-over-year to $590,000, despite nearly 7 months of inventory.
  
  
• Bastrop County: Prices down 2.7%, inventory at 7.5 months (lots of supply).
  
  
• Hays County: Prices down 4.6%, pending sales still climbing.
  
  
• Caldwell County: Down only 1%, with tighter 4.5 months of inventory.
  
  
• Travis County overall: Prices up 1%, but with heavy inventory (6.9 months).
  
  

Where you buy makes a big difference.

Interest Rates Are Shifting Buyer Behavior

Mortgage rates are easing slightly:

• Currently around 6.9% (down from 7%+ earlier this year)
  
  
• If rates hit 6.25%, expect demand in Austin to surge again
  
  

Buyers are waiting for that sweet spot where affordability improves without losing negotiating power.

Inventory by Price Point

Not all segments of the market look the same:

• Luxury ($1.4M+): 9 months of inventory & lots of choice for high-end buyers.
  
  
• Entry-level (<$400K): 4.6 months of inventory but still competitive, mostly condos and townhomes.
  
  
• Mid-range ($400K–$500K): About 60% of July sales were under $500K, showing strong demand here.
  
  

What About Rentals?

Rents are softening slightly:

• Down 2.2% year-over-year
  
  
• Many “accidental landlords” may start listing properties for sale again
  
  
• November 2024 marked the rent low at $2,275, and we could approach that again in 2025
  
  

New Construction on the Horizon

Massive developments are underway:

• Georgetown: 31,000 homes planned
  
  
• Kyle: 43,000 homes coming
  
  
• Pflugerville: 17,000
  
  
• Taylor: 8,500 (boosted by Samsung/Elon expansion)
  
  
• Dripping Springs: 5,000
  
  

This flood of supply could keep price growth modest, especially in the suburbs.

Key Takeaways for Buyers & Sellers

• Buyers: This is one of the best windows in years to negotiate. High inventory = leverage. Watch interest rates closely, when they dip lower, competition will return.
  
  
• Sellers: Price realistically. With nearly 7 months of inventory in some areas, overpricing means sitting on the market while buyers shop around.
  
  

Final Thoughts

So, did Austin home prices go up or down? The truth is: it depends where you’re looking. Some counties are still trending down, while the City of Austin itself is up slightly.

The bigger story? Inventory is at record highs, interest rates are shifting, and buyers finally have negotiating power again. If you’re thinking about buying or selling in Austin, don’t just rely on headlines, work with someone who lives in the numbers every day.

I’m Jeremy Knight, your favorite Austin realtor. If you found this helpful, subscribe on YouTube and follow me on Instagram for weekly updates. And if you’re ready to make a move in this market, let’s connect.