Austin Housing Crash! Time To Leave!

Analyzing the Austin MSA numbers for August and What Lies Ahead - 

We'll dive into the Austin real estate market, specifically focusing on the Austin Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) numbers for the month of August. We'll discuss the current state of inventory, examine the impact of CPI numbers on interest rates, and provide valuable advice for both buyers and sellers in the last half of the year.

The Austin Real Estate Landscape in August: The Austin real estate market witnessed some intriguing developments in August, particularly concerning inventory levels. We observed an increase in inventory, a trend that defies the national pattern. This rise in inventory is a pivotal factor influencing Austin's real estate dynamics, setting it apart from the national narrative.

The MSA inventory increased from 9,663 to 9,955 in August. This surge in inventory, unlike the national trend, plays a crucial role in shaping Austin's real estate scenario. Had this abundant inventory been available in 2021 and 2022, it could have potentially prevented the steep price surges experienced during those years. Instead, we might have witnessed a steadier annual increase of 8-10%.

Analyzing the Impact of CPI Numbers on Interest Rates: Anticipated fluctuations in interest rates are a major concern for buyers and sellers alike. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a vital indicator influencing these changes. Recent CPI data for August revealed an unexpected increase, primarily driven by higher gasoline prices. Such spikes can potentially prompt the Federal Reserve (FED) to consider interest rate adjustments.

Currently, the national interest rate stands at 7.29%. However, with CPI-driven concerns and a likely FED decision to raise rates in the coming months, this figure may escalate. Austin's local market, despite being robust, is not immune to these influences. Higher interest rates could impact mortgage rates, potentially presenting both challenges and opportunities for buyers.

The Seasonal Trend in Austin's Real Estate Market: Understanding the seasonal fluctuations in Austin's real estate market is essential for making informed decisions, especially for sellers. Historically, the latter half of the year witnesses a flattening of prices, as illustrated by data from previous years. Prices peak in June and July, only to dip slightly in August.

This consistent pattern suggests that despite occasional dips, the Austin market remains resilient. Contrary to claims of a crashing market, historical data showcases these predictable fluctuations. September, October, November, and December typically witness a dip followed by a return to stability, offering potential opportunities for both buyers and sellers.