I have my own predictions on the upcoming year in Austin- and it's not good. We are seeing year after year a decease in prices in the last decade. We are seeing a lot of sellers pull their homes off the market because they sat.  December is when most listings are pulled off the market because of the holidays, but good news is the sellers usually decide to put it back on market once the holidays are over. If you're looking to buy, it's good to come in with much lower than asking price. From Febuary-August, we will see this decline continue, however, come next December, we will finally see the market start to climb back upwards. "Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams says the economy will likely be more resilient to this housing correction than when the 2000's housing boom went bust thanks to mortgage underwriting standards becoming stricter after the Great Recession and most homeowners being in generally better financial shape."   Please watch my video for my predictions of the negative and positives about this negative decline and leave me your thoughts in the comments!   

I want to highlight the builder Taylor Morrison in the Head Watters neighborhood. The price range is usually 750K-850K. The most popular floorplan is a 3,000sqft home, 5 bedrooms, 4 baths, 1.5 stories and a 3 car garage. You will of course get to choose from a stellar choice of upgrades. The neighborhood is most popular for the hill country views from your backyard which are breath taking.  The HOA fees are $135.00/ month.  This will include the use of the pool and the spectacular community center which boasts a coffee shop inside as well! The additional nice thing about this area is that the tax rate is only 2.5% when the average at other homes is usually 2.9%/  Check out my video for a view of this beautiful home and comment below it to let me know if this is someplace you would love.    

  Let’s explore myths and lies in the market right now.  For example, no one is buying in this market! In reality, there is an increase in multifamily homes. Despite popular belief, we are absolutely not in a housing crash.  I explore why in this video. What are we going to see in early next year? How much did builders stop building? Does inventory drop because more buyers jump in the pool or are more sellers looking to sell due to job losses? Are the interest rates predicted to increase or decrease early next year?  

Wow! This Coming To Lakeway! NOW Austin’s BEST Suburb! I don’t talk much about Lakeway because some folks get a little cranky when I make videos on an area with a high median home average (852K).  However, let’s take a look at the area to see what intrigues people to migrate here.  Lakeway used to be a retirement community but there has been a huge an influx of young families.  This is because the school district is one of the best in the surrounding areas.  The views are spectacular. and the amenities include lots of lake access, a huge hospital and parks with beautiful trails. Lakeway is 25 miles from downtown, but the biggest problem with the traffic is that there is only 2 ways into Lakeway. Lakeway resort also resides here which is amazing (offers fine dining and a pool). Almost everyone moving to Lakeway do not work in Lakeway because there is not much employment opportunities. There is not a whole lot of nightlife or restaurants. However, a 500 million mixed use development is about to break ground. This will offer office space, apartments, a hotel and outdoor gathering places.  So what do you think? Would you consider moving to Lakeway?    

Why Austin Developers are QUITTING the Housing Market We have a supply issue right now in Austin. New home inventory is sitting and so the builders are not interested in building more inventory.  We aren’t creating homes for the upcoming influx of buyers who are currently renting. This will affect the home supply.  If you’re not looking right now, you are going to miss out on all of the incentives and inventory offered. Are we turning away more jobs than creating them is also something to consider?  Are net jobs in Austin are still blowing up which is a positive trend.  We still have ridiculously low unemployment rate of 2.7%. Tesla alone has 300 jobs a week that they are looking to hire! In the Austin Metro area land prices have not fluctuated nor have the prices decreased much. Land has ended up being separate from the trend of the housing market.  You cannot get great mortgages of land like you can homes.      

Austin Housing CRASH Over! Or, still to come? If you’re a buyer or seller, this video is very important. Additionally, I would like to discuss stat the most that no one is talking about or even looking at! Let’s look at some numbers: Median price 3 months is a row has remained at 550K. 20 days of increase on days on market (or longer) 61% of the homes currently on market are vacant Half of this number is new construction homes. This is a LOT of homes vacant! Lot of clients are relocating BACK to California Interest rates have dropped from 7.08% to 6.6% There are huge companies doing some lay offs like Facebook and Amazon.  Rental prices are beginning to drop.  If you’re on the fence about selling, you will have to offer a lot of incentives to overcome the fact that builders are offering a TON of incentives as well.  A way to combat the competition is also to lower the listed price on your home. The MOST important stat that no one is looking at or even talking about is the fact that there will be a housing shortage based on the influx of the millennial population entering in the housing market until 2030. So, with all of this information, what do you think of the current market? Please leave your comments under my blog and let me know what you personally think?  

There is definitely more inventory available now, which as I predicted, has the cost of homes dropping rapidly.  Now is the time again that buyers have purchasing power to negotiate cost. Here are the top areas that you can now consider buying in that you couldn’t during the pandemic due to price drops! Westlake- Prices haven’t dropped significantly but the negotiation power is now available! Mueller- A lot of people like this area because of the hip lifestyle. If this is you, go negotiate! 78704 Zip code. This includes areas like Bouldin Creek, Travis Heights and Zilker Park. This is my favorite area and the median home prices have drastically dropped since last year and the inventory is up! Circle C- The price drop is SHOCKING. Great schools, great community and only 15 minutes away from downtown! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCQOyU8Uljc

Thirty percent of all home inventory right now is new construction. New home sales continue to decline but who’s benefiting? The answer is…investors. With the excess of inventory, investors have been swooping in and buying up lots in bundles. Builders are so aware of this that they are even setting aside inventory for potential investors. So is now a good time to buy a new construction home?  What are your options? New home builders are offering a ton of incentives right now which can off set the cost of your high interest rate. Or you could wait until interest rates continue to decline. Comment on my video and let me know what you think you would do?

Join me for a conversation with @KevinKnight_atx, @ianofaustin and @loanswithsarah to discuss the direction of the housing market.  Leave me a comment about what you predict will happen in the upcoming months with the housing market and why you feel this way. Ian- “If the housing crash happens, then get ready with cash to buy a home. This is where people who have made life long good financial decisions will benefit. Sarah- “ We haven’t seen any depreciation of homes yet which doesn’t indicate an impending crashWe actually have seen 1.5% increase in homes.” Kevin- “Home prices are actually more of what they should be considering demand” Jeremy- “If everyone believes there’s a crash coming and state their opinion that a crash is coming and stop buying due to fear, doesn’t this lead itself to a crash?”

First time since August 2021 prices drop, way lower than even I predicted.  Austin went from 667K to 615K in one month. It’s going to take more inventory in the market to see prices drop more. New construction makes up 30% of all sales. So, we are finally seeing completion of new construction homes and they are closing at a lower price than first listed. I predict interest rates are going to cool off in October 2022. I know many of you disagree but if we follow the trend, the prices may drop even lower. Are you seeing prices drop around you? Comment below my video and let me know your thoughts!

What should you know if you’re thinking about selling? If you own a home, you get to deduct things from your taxes that renters don’t.  It’s no secret that your home is an investment the longer you stay in it.  Don’t buy if you are looking to sell in two years. Crash or no crash- you need to have longevity with your home to experience appreciation. If you are looking to sell, make sure you list the home at what it is actually worth. Home prices have now dropped 50K so it’s good to wait out the market to experience your continued appreciation. Leave a comment below my video, what do you think of the current sellers market?  

Let me be clear, I love Austin and everything about it.  If I had the choice, I would live downtown.  I love how crazy and cool this city is. But let’s explore reasons why people would leave now and the last reason is the only reason why I chose to leave. Property Taxes on the rise Prop A and B passed. This was the underground train that got approved and will inevitably raise taxes even more. Homeless problem- This issue is being addressed, but Austin is still not doing enough   Now for my reason for why I left Austin!  During the pandemic, my son (along with many children) fell far back education wise. We believe that the Austin ISD is not going to be able to catch him up. We even looked at private education and the feedback was the same.  After a LOT of research, we believe that the Dripping Springs ISD will get him caught up and thriving again.   Plus, there’s some perks- lots of cool distilleries, outdoor activities and restaurants.  There ya go! Comment below my video to let me know what has been your experience living in Austin and what a new person would experience coming here.  

Prices have gotten out of control during the pandemic. The median home price in Austin is 615K while in surrounding Austin areas it is 537K.  Rental rates have also skyrocketed.  The city just released a 350 million affordable housing bond for the November ballot. This usually works by the city building housing and then subsiding rents to buyers. However, this 350 million is drawn from tax payers dollars. There have already been two similar bonds like this passed in the previous two years. What do you think, has it helped affordability by raising taxes?  I’m curious if you’re seeing affordability issues in your area? Please comment under my video above.

The economy in Austin often seems bullet proof to a recession because of all the fluid growth happening here monthly.  Let’s review 5 things coming soon to Austin which will further positively impact our city and surrounding communities. I)- Micron Chip Making Company- Lockhart, TX. This is an area that we are about to see explode due to Micron building an 80 BILLION dollar plant. This will have a growth ripple effect in sister towns like Kyle, Buda, South Austin, and even Bastrop will benefit. The average cost of a new DR Horton home in Lockhart right now is an affordable $346,000! II)- Samsung Plant- Taylor, TX. We have already seen the effects of this sleepy town mushroom into a bustling real estate gold mine thanks to Samsung. The plant is 200 BILLION to build and the average income of a Samsung worker is expected to be about $72,000.  III)- Native Tiny Diner- East side Austin, TX. This will be a unique Japanese comfort food restaurant during lunch. However, at night this restaurant will allow Pop Up Chef’s to cook and serve any cuisine. So, if Japanese isn’t your jam, show up at dinner time and enjoy anything from Japanese to Texas BBQ and more! IV)- Hanover Blvd Apartments- Downtown Austin, TX. Excitement around these apartments are based upon the affordable rent range and increase in downtown living options.  It starts at $2,300/ month. However, if affordability isn’t a concern for you, you could rent a suite as high as $19,000/month!  This building offers 310 apartments (already at 25% capacity).  This building is one foot taller than the Frost Building knocking it off of it’s height ranking. V)- Elon Musk Airport- Bastrop, TX. ???????????? Elon has stated that he has no plans to build an airport. However, there are multiple documents showing the conceptual plans and purchase of large amounts of land.  Rumor has it that this airport will be a personal landing pad for his private jet and executives. Since Elon has already built airports on Texas land before, it’s not absurd to think that this may become a reality in Bastrop.  What do you think? What do you know?   Watch the video above and leave your comments!  

CNBC just released an announcement that, “Bank of America launches zero down payment of mortgages to help minorities buy their first homes.” (09/01/22)  They later edited to include not only minorities but communities that reside within certain places that have low home ownership so you do not have to be Black or Latino to obtain this loan. In response, Moneywise released a response article stating, “2008 all over again? This could actually harm the communities it’s designed to help…heavily driven by risky loans to unqualified buyers. This mimic’s what happened in 2008.”  What are your thoughts? My goal is always to list the facts in these videos. Drop me a comment, do you think these loans will help or hurt the minority population?  

  Austin Prices Drop- Find Out Where Where should you buy that you couldn’t before? Find out what areas you now have the power to negotiate LOWER than the listed price.  Here are the Top 5 areas that have experienced a rapid price decrease: WESTLAKE- 1.7 Million Average Price Range This is a highly sought after area because it is close to downtown and has one of the best schools in the area. Even though the price is 1.7 Million as average, I am seeing offers coming in lower and getting accepted. This was unheard of a few months ago. MUELLER-  1.5 Million Average Price Range: This is an idyllic community.  The houses are close together like the people are. You are close to the very cool Thinkery Museum and lots of convenient amenities within a 5-mile radius. BOULDIN CREEK/ ZILKER PARK-850K Average Price Range This is basically the heart of Austin.  Bike Trails, Trendy coffee shops, restaurants and Town Lake. CIRCLE C- 900K Average Price Range Similar to the Mueller area, this is a tight family-oriented community.  It includes great schools, 15 minutes to downtown and boasts the Velloway for leisure or serious bicyclist. Branch out to the surrounding areas of Austin like Durango Hills in Leander, Round Rock and Buda. UNDER 400K Branch out to the surrounding areas of Austin like Durango Hills in Leander, Round Rock and Buda.